Short-term solar energy forecasting for network stability

Author(s):  Prof. Dr.-Ing. Holger Hermanns;

Photovoltaic energy production is an important part of the future global energy market. Especially in Germany, small scale solar production is growing massively, owed to financial incentives by the governement.  A crucial feature of renewable energy sources is its unreliable and partly uncontrollable behaviour. This problem is amplified by specifics of solar producers operating in close geographic vicinity: They have a very high coincidence factor meaning that their production may change rapidly and almost synchronously owed to changes in cloud coverage. This makes the stable operation of a local area power network especially vulnerable to short term changes.
To predict critical conditions, we are developing forecasting techniques for photovoltaic energy production based on precise local information and short-term weather predictions.

Publication Date:  2011/10/12
Location of Publication:  SmartCoDe ECWS 2, Vienna
Keyword(s):  Renewable Energies; Energy Management;